El Mundo en 2026 (según The Economist)
2005-11-20: Este será el mundo en el 2026 según la revista The Economist. En contraposición con 1987, antes de que cayera el Muro de Berlín, la ascensión a única potencia mundial de los Estados Unidos, el crecimiento de China ... Seguid leyendo ...
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The world in 2026
From The World in 2006 print edition
Who will be number one?
The world has changed a lot since our first edition, The World in 1987: no Berlin Wall, no Soviet Union, a single superpower. China’s rise is a safe bet to be one of the most important developments over the next 20 years. By 2026, will China—assuming it stays in one piece—be the world’s biggest economy?
Yes and no. If countries’ economies are measured using market exchange rates (the rates at which firms trade and repatriate profits), in 2026 America will remain comfortably the world’s number one, according to long-range forecasts by the Economist Intelligence Unit. It will still account for more than one-quarter of global output, twice as much as second-placed China, which will itself have comfortably overtaken Japan.
But when countries are compared using purchasing-power parity rates (PPP), which adjust for price differences between countries and reflect the actual buying power of local income, China overtakes America in about 2017. Though far from perfect, PPP is a better way of comparing economic size. By this measure, in 2026 India will be the third-biggest economy, well behind America but far ahead of Japan. Indeed, by then youthful India will be growing faster than an ageing China.
And Europe? It will be in relative decline, whichever way you measure it. The 25-country EU will drop from 31% of global GDP in 2006 to 24% in 2026 (or, by the PPP calculation, from 21% to 16%). But the EU could have a way to reduce its weight-loss: adding big new members, such as Turkey, Ukraine and maybe one day even Russia.
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The world in 2026
From The World in 2006 print edition
Who will be number one?
The world has changed a lot since our first edition, The World in 1987: no Berlin Wall, no Soviet Union, a single superpower. China’s rise is a safe bet to be one of the most important developments over the next 20 years. By 2026, will China—assuming it stays in one piece—be the world’s biggest economy?
Yes and no. If countries’ economies are measured using market exchange rates (the rates at which firms trade and repatriate profits), in 2026 America will remain comfortably the world’s number one, according to long-range forecasts by the Economist Intelligence Unit. It will still account for more than one-quarter of global output, twice as much as second-placed China, which will itself have comfortably overtaken Japan.
But when countries are compared using purchasing-power parity rates (PPP), which adjust for price differences between countries and reflect the actual buying power of local income, China overtakes America in about 2017. Though far from perfect, PPP is a better way of comparing economic size. By this measure, in 2026 India will be the third-biggest economy, well behind America but far ahead of Japan. Indeed, by then youthful India will be growing faster than an ageing China.
And Europe? It will be in relative decline, whichever way you measure it. The 25-country EU will drop from 31% of global GDP in 2006 to 24% in 2026 (or, by the PPP calculation, from 21% to 16%). But the EU could have a way to reduce its weight-loss: adding big new members, such as Turkey, Ukraine and maybe one day even Russia.